Even reforming elections in Nigeria will not fix democracy.

That is the opinion of pro-democracy activists in Nigeria’s capital Abuja.

A year ago, Umaru Yar’Adua was elected in a poll that was condemned by international observers as being the worst Africa’s most populous nation had held.

He immediately promised reform and set up a committee to recommend what should be done to ensure improvements.

Public hearings for the committee begin in May and it is expected to publish a report in August.

Huge problems

But previously unseen TV footage showing election violence during the gubernatorial elections last year.

It shows to some degree the scale of the problem facing those who want to see free and fair elections in Nigeria.

The footage shot in the northern state of Katsina, the president’s home state, shows youths from a village who have not been able to vote, stopping an Inec minibus transporting ballot boxes and tearing them open, because they believe they have been stuffed with votes for the ruling People’s Democratic Party.

It is not immediately clear how they know where the bus carrying the boxes has come from or if they really are illegitimate votes, but the chaos and frustration in the whooping screams of the youths show what reformers are up against.

Advisers to the presidency say there is a broad consensus among MPs that change is needed, and criticism of the reforms or the president is misplaced.

“I am confident the political class will deliver,” says Akilu Indabawa, adviser to the vice president on electoral reform.

“Rotten”

But while democracy activists welcome the committee they say that the problems preventing a truly democratic election from being held are so difficult and numerous, any reform programme will struggle to produce results.

“The system is rotten. You have to dismantle the current structure and replace it with something more genuine and patriotic,” says Awwal Rafsanjani, spokesman for the Transition Monitoring Group, the largest domestic election monitor.

The lack of an independent election regulator, the lack of significant political difference between parties, the involvement of the police, the opaque financing of parties and the huge gains awaiting those in office are all interconnected issues that must be addressed.

This would involve a complete change in the political culture of Nigeria.

At the same time activists are concerned that if nothing concrete is done before the next election there could be serious outbreaks of violence between thugs sponsored by politicians desperate to get hold of power.

As time goes on, they say, the incentive for those facing re-election to back reforms diminishes.

“Increasingly, narrow political interest will take over, thoughts will turn to how to win the next election,” says Emma Ezeazu of the Alliance for Credible Elections.

“People forget that the People’s Democratic Party vowed to rule this country for 150 years.”

Any recommendations made by the panel, led by the former Chief Justice Mohammed Uwais, will need considerable reform of the constitution.

The question is will MPs who benefit from the system as it is, voluntarily vote to change it?

The last time that was tried, then-president Olusegun Obasanjo added a clause that would have allowed him to stand for election again.

Apathy

Democracy activists must also contend with another, seemingly immovable force – the apathy of Nigerian voters.

In local elections this year, turnout was very low. Observers said in Rivers State few people came out to vote.

But in some local government areas the Independent National Electoral Commission said 95% of those eligible voted.

Some critics of Umaru Yar’Adua have given the Nigerian president a new nickname: “Baba-go-slow”.

Most people called his predecessor Olusegun Obasanjo “Baba” – in reference to his fatherly style of governing.

Mr Yar’Adua has inherited a less-than respectful name after a year of seemingly little progress.

But is that really fair?

When he came to power in a flawed election last year, President Yar’Adua promised reforms, and lots of them.

The electoral system would be revolutionised, peace would be sought in the oil-rich Niger Delta, the murky oil industry would be reformed as well as the woefully inadequate power industry.

‘Topsy turvy’

“He’s not really done anything of substance this year,” says Mahmud Jega, editor of the Daily Trust newspaper.

“He’s helped calm down what was a cantankerous political atmosphere, and he’s not making enemies left, right and centre.

“But progress has been very slow. He’s not a very vigorous person.”

Peter Esele, the president of the Trade Union Congress, says this year has been a “topsy turvy” one for the Nigerian president.

“On the one hand there has been a marked departure from the ways of the past. A lot more is being done properly,” he says.

But, he adds, powerful people in government are still interfering in business to benefit their own interests, damaging Nigeria’s economy.

And this corruption does not look like it will be stopped.

“There is no political will to do so, and we’re going round in circles.”

‘All talk, no action’

In the oil-producing Niger Delta, where poverty surrounds the pipelines carrying Nigeria’s crucial revenue, criticism is stronger.

“I don’t see any sincerity in government,” says Obulabo Inko-Taria, editor of the Port Harcourt newspaper Hard Truth.

The government has reached out to some armed groups and persuaded them, reportedly with cash payments, to stop blowing up oil pipelines.

A peace conference is due to be held in the next two months, but Mr Inko-Taria says he is not impressed.

“All the government is talking about is discussions and conferences. Conferences to discuss what?” he says.

“The issue at the centre of this is clear. We in the Niger Delta need to control more of our resources. But they won’t address inequality in the Delta.”

The most publicly visible militant group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, has not stopped its attacks on oil facilities and says it will not attend any peace conferences.

In the power sector the president is still saying he is about to declare a “state of emergency” on the industry – one of his campaign promises.

In the meantime, a parliamentary investigation has uncovered that turbines worth billion of dollars are rotting away in ports because there is no way of getting them to where the power stations are meant to be.

The previous administration had promised to generate 10,000 megawatts (MW) by this year; although Mr Obasanjo admitted last month that 10 times that amount was needed for Nigeria to become an industrialised country.

Right now Nigeria’s electricity company barely manages to provide 3,500MW.

In comparison, South Africa generates 40,000MW, and it is struggling to supply its population – roughly one third of Nigeria’s size.

A presidential-appointed committee of experts set up to reform the industry has recommended immediate action to prevent costs on unfinished power projects from growing.

Nigeria has already spent a reported $16bn (£8bn) on them.

‘New wives’

But supporters say all this criticism is unfair.

Effective solutions to Nigeria’s problems require proper planning, they say.

Senator Kanti Bello, who represents part of President Yar’Adua’s home state of Katsina, says criticism is “small boys talk”.

“What do they want us to do, start spending money? That is how we got into this mess, spending without proper planning.”

 The first year of President Yar’Adua’s administration has been about working to ensure fiscal responsibility, that state governments spend oil revenues in the way they are supposed to, he said.

According to the constitution, oil revenues – currently $12bn (£6bn) – have to be shared out among state governments.

And governors are lobbying hard for the cash to be released.

But if it does the government risks driving up inflation.

“We want them to spend the money on power, schools on hospitals but we know if we release it without being able to say: ‘This is what you will spend it on,’ they will go and buy new cars for themselves and get new wives,” Sen Bello said.

Razia Khan of Standard Chartered Bank agrees that progress has been made in Nigeria’s fiscal responsibility.

“There may not have been progress in the headline-grabbing reforms but there have been encouraging signs.

‘Quality not quantity’

Dubious privatisations signed by Mr Obasanjo have been reversed by his successor.

Two ministers alleged to have fraudulently shared out budget money they were meant to return have been arrested.

“I don’t get the sense that people feel they’re going backward in Nigeria. There is progress, it’s just very slow,” Ms Khan said.

The president himself has promised more will be done.

“The quality of your planning, the quality of your programmes, determines the nature of their achievements,” he said in an interview with the UK newspaper Financial Times.

“What we have to learn to know is that you cannot achieve anything without planning, and planning is a long-term process.”

Both critics and supporters agree that top of his bulging in tray remains sorting out the power supply.

“You can’t have anything without electricity,” says Sen. Bello.

How long it takes Nigerians to get a regular supply, will be the real test of Mr Yar’Adua’s planning.